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NEWS > TECHNOLOGY > EXPERTS FEAR HOARDING AS IP ADDRESSES RUN LOW
EXPERTS FEAR HOARDING AS IP ADDRESSES RUN LOW
July 26 2010
Geneva, Switzerland – Arguably, there has been no technology that has had such a dramatic effect on human culture as the internet. Impacting virtually all aspects of human society, from entertainment to communication, the internet has created a 
paradigm shift in human interaction as dynamic as the printing press did, or the telephone. The internet though is still young and still only at the precipice of potential. With massive populations in China, India, and Africa only starting to get connected, the upward potential of the internet is huge and likely to further change society in ways we cannot even imagine.
However, like any technology the internet is not without its obstacles. Despite the almost magical nature of the internet it is in fact simply another technology, reliant on cables, switching boxes, commercial interests, and government meddling. Those restrictions are just as profound and potentially as impactful as the technology they support, potentially limiting the spread and ultimately the influence of the internet. However, it may not be all those external forces that ultimately create the biggest threat to the growth of the technology. The biggest threat may be the growth itself and the demands that creates on the network. Most importantly is the dwindling number of IP addresses that may, according to experts, create hoarding and cause the entire internet to shut down entirely.
“We are at a cusp, I think, in the IP address space for internet," he said, noting that, if nothing changes, a ‘black market’ for these internet addresses may develop. This is like the internet running out of telephone numbers and with no new numbers, you can’t have more subscribers,” said Vinton Cerf, one of the fathers of the internet. “The technical stuff for IPv6 is done. IPv6 is ready. This is a business issue in the internet service industry. The ISP community round the world needs to pay attention. They are persisting in the ‘nobody is asking for this’ mentality. They are not valuing business continuity as they should. When they finally wake up, there is going to be a mad scramble for IPv6 and they won’t implement it properly.”
IPv6 is the proposed extension of IP addresses which would give the internet a bunch more space.
“When the internet was first created there was no thought that it would become as
big as it has become. Realistically no one could ever have expected that it was going to get this big so the old implementation made sense at the time but eventually it is going to have to change,” said Scrape TV Technology analyst Ken Kevins. “Unfortunately we’ve been hearing these warnings for years, particularly from Cerf. Every years he says that the addresses will run out the next year and they don’t. Eventually they will, but these constant warning have created fear that is likely to cause a great deal of problems going forward.”
Cerf’s latest warning is that the world will run out of addresses by 2011, warnings he issued for 2010, 2009, 2008, and 2007.
“The real problem is that people are people. Yes we will possibly have a black market but the biggest concern is that people will start hoarding addresses leaving many out in the cold. They will be sitting in their computer rooms armed to the teeth and ready to take on any comers and that doesn’t do any good for the internet,” continued Kevins. “There is the very real possibility that with these little cadres of hoarders and profiteers that we could end up with a complete shutdown of the internet that it may never recover from. Or they will implement the new protocols and everything will be fine. Anything’s a possibility I guess.”
The possibility of an internet blackout has also become a concern for law enforcement officials who are concerned that rioting may ensue should people not have access to videos of cute babies.
Martin Philton, Technology Correspondent
NEWS > TECHNOLOGY > EXPERTS FEAR HOARDING AS IP ADDRESSES RUN LOW
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